The new mid-year revision of the ‘Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2021-2023’from the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) indicates a hard year ahead in 2021 but with recovery occurring thereafter, albeit in a very uneven fashion.
With the extreme volatility in the travel and tourism sector brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic and the resultant containment policies and measures enacted in order to prevent its continued spread, predicting the course of any form of recovery has never been as important as it is today.
That in and of itself necessitates constant reviews of the current position with future predictions being continuously revised with the most recent data and information at its base. With the original PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2021-2023 report, projections for that period were made using estimated baseline data for 2020, albeit on the latest data for each of 39 destinations within Asia Pacific. During the intervening months to date, however, not only have new data become available, but a range of other factors have surfaced as well, leading to this scheduled review of the forecasts with these new developments factored into them.
Across all 39 Asia Pacific destinations the difference in the estimated values used in the original forecasts and those with the most recently released official arrivals data was a positive gain of 3.8% between the two. From an initial forecast of 121.843 million international visitor arrivals (IVAs) in 2020 in the original series, the actuals can now be updated at 126.475 million.